AS OF NOW

Posted at 7:54 a.m. ET

That's an important phrase in following politics - "as of now."  For those of us of a certain persuasion, the last day has been exhilarating.  The standard Gallup Poll has McCain/Palin up ten points among likely voters. 

But please remember that Obama was up eight only six days ago in the Gallup tracker (taken among registered voters).

And think back two weeks, B.P. - before Palin.  It was an entirely different race.  Is it really possible that McCain announced her selection only 10 days ago?

A week is three lifetimes in politics.  We are not, as some commentators say, entering the homestretch of this campaign.  That occurs in October.  We are just beginning the main campaign itself.  There are debates ahead, with their hazards, and their sometimes biased moderators.  There are interviews.  There are potential embarrassing moments, or revelations.  There are international events, including a possible terror attack, that could change everything.  There is the chance that a candidate could fall ill.

So everything we say is "as of now."  We can bask in the success of the last week, but there is hard work ahead, and media misbehavior to battle.

A word about Sarah Palin:  I've been following politics since...well, for a long time.  It was different then, listening to Lincoln and Douglas.  I was the only one in the crowd with a digital camera.

But in all my years, Sarah Palin is the most phenomenal political personality I've seen.  She's being compared to Ronald Reagan, but I think the comparison is wrong.  Reagan was a magnificent speaker, but in a different, more regal way.  The better comparison, I think, is to Franklin D. Roosevelt.  Like Roosevelt, Palin has a way of reaching people, of speaking directly to us, as Roosevelt did in his fireside chats.  Bill Clinton may feel our pain, but Palin has experienced our pain.

There is a famous story about the day Roosevelt died.  A reporter noticed a soldier standing at the White House gate, and crying.  The reporter asked, "Did you know him?"  The soldier replied, "No, but he knew me."  That is the feeling people get with Sarah Palin.  She connects.  She understands.  She is incredibly articulate, one of the clearest, most understandable speakers I've ever heard.  And she has a wonderful, genuine voice.  Many people who speak publicly try to eliminate any regional accent.  She has not done so.  She is from somewhere.  She has roots, a home, a place.  Somewhere real.

September 8, 2008.